FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF TEH BOTOL PRODUCTS INVENTORY USING THE MOVING AVERAGE METHOD
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Nov 27, 2021
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Abstract
MSMEs in the supply of goods often experience problems in predicting the number of products that must be available for the following month. If the product is purchased in large quantities, it is feared that the product will not sell well. If the product is purchased in less quantity, the buyer may not get the item he needs. Based on the MSME problem situation, the researchers used the Weighted Moving Average or moving average method as a method to help forecast inventory for the next period, by looking for the smallest gala value to increase accuracy in forecasting the inventory of goods in the kiosk. The data used for this research is sales data for one year from 2020 to 2021. The Moving Average method is a method that gives different weights for each historical. This method produces inventory forecasts for the next period. Judging from the results obtained, namely the forecasting of the following period is 489 bottles. This forecasting result is very accurate because it is supported by the calculation result of the obtained MAPE value of 6.847%. Where, when the MAPE value is getting smaller, the more significant the forecasting accuracy is. With the analysis of inventory forecasting can help simplify the process of service owners in providing goods for the future
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Manuhutu, M. (2021). FORECASTING ANALYSIS OF TEH BOTOL PRODUCTS INVENTORY USING THE MOVING AVERAGE METHOD. Electro Luceat, 7(2), 21-28. https://doi.org/10.32531/jelekn.v7i2.412
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
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[3] Gofur, A. A. (2015). Sistem Peramalan Untuk Pengadaan Material Unit Injection di PT. XYZ. Komputa: Jurnal Ilmiah Komputer dan Informatika, 2(2).
[4] R. Y. Hayuningtyas. (2017). Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weighted Moving Average dan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing,” None, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 217–222, 2017.
[5] S. S. Sundari, Susanto, and W. Revianti. (2015). Sistem Peramalan Persediaan Barang Dengan Weight Moving Average Di Toko The Kids 24,” Konf. Nas. Sist. dan Inform., pp. 598– 603, 2015.
[6] Saputra, Andri. (2016). Pengembangan Sistem Pendukung Keputusan Peramalan Persediaan Barang Menggunakan Metode Weight Moving Average.STMIK – Politeknik Pal Com Tech, 12 Mei 2016 :225-230
[7] Melda Agnes Manuhutu, Lulu Jola Uktolseja, Tagor Manurung, Sherly Gaspersz, Abraham Manuhutu. (2019). Design of Management Information System At Bersama Maju Clinic, Web-Based International Journal of Innovative Technology and Exploring Engineering (IJITEE). ISSN: 2278-3075, Volume-8 Issue-9, July 2019.
[8] Melda Agnes Manuhutu, Yulianti Flasao, dan Lulu Jola Uktolseja. (2018). Perancangan Sistem Informasi Pariwisata Dan Kebudayaan Kabupaten Maybrat Berbasis Web (Studi Kasus: Komunitas Pecinta Alam Papua Barat). ScientiCO : Computer Science and Informatics Journal Vol. 1, No. 2, (2018) E-ISSN: 2620-4118
[9] Alfarisi, S. (2017). Sistem Prediksi Penjualan Gamis Toko Qitaz Menggunakan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing. JABE (Journal of Applied Business and Economic), 4(1),80-95.
[10] Imbar, R. V., & Andreas, Y. (2015). Aplikasi Peramalan Stok Barang Menggunakan Metode Double Exponential Smoothing. Jurnal Sistem Informasi, 7(2).
[11] Heizer, Jay and Render Barry, (2015), Manajemen Operasi : Manajemen Keberlangsungan dan Rantai Pasokan, edisi 11, Salemba Empat, Jakarta.
[12] Ahmad Subagyo. (2008). Studi Kelayakan Teori dan Aplikasi. Jakarta : PT. Gramedia.
[13] Kristien & Sofian. (2015). Analisa da Penerapan Metode Single Exponential Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Penjualan Pada Periode Tertentu. Proc. SNATIF Ke-2. Kudus: Fakultas Teknik Universitas Muria Kudus.